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Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T23:13Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 38.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.14286 - 5.28571
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -38.82 hour(s)
Difference: -19.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-03-16T18:37Z

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